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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still